Who Will Rule Kenya in 2047?
According to the Kenya Population and Housing Census, Kenya had a total population of around 47 million in 2019. The population is projected to increase, with the KPHC holding that by 2045, the country will have 70 million people. Since politics in Kenya is mostly regional and tribal, looking at population trends in each ethnic region can help us understand what the Kenya of the future might look like, including which tribe will have a majority population, which regions will gain more people, and which regions will by virtue of their numbers rule Kenya.
Population Trends
Worth noting currently is that many assumptions go into developing population projections, and what is assumed will be the case might not necessarily become the case. Migration to and from certain counties might increase as some regions urbanize or develop. For example, the KPHC observes that Nyamira, Kisii, Kirinyaga, Machakos, and Vihiga will have the least population growth due to population loss from migration.
Considering fertility, mortality, and migratory trends, several counties will see higher population growth than others. The highest percentage of population growth will be in counties such as Samburu (84%), Tana River (81%), Narok (79%), Lamu (77%), Wajir (75%), and Turkana (75%). I believe this directly results from their very high fertility rates, with each of these counties other than Narok (4.9) having a TFR above 5.0 today. By sheer numbers, Nairobi, Nakuru, Narok, and Kakamega will have the highest increase in population throughout the projection period. Nairobi will become a city of more than 6 million people, with Kiambu and Nakuru projected to settle slightly below where Nairobi currently is, with each having 3.7 and 3.3 million people, respectively.
I derived the chart below, using KPHC county population projection data, which visualizes the mean total population projections for various ethnic regions in 2045. Worth noting is that the mean figure does not represent the total population figures for these regions. However, it does denote the average population increase per region, making them easier for comparison. The gap between the two lines shows you the rate of increase in population, with broader areas showing a larger increase than narrow areas. Unexpectedly, the Maasai region, denoted by Narok and Kajiado counties, will have the highest average population increase, as well as the region with the highest average population in 2045. The only other region with such a tremendous population growth is Turkana and Luo land. The chart excludes Nairobi, which will have a population above 6 million in 2045.
Central Kenya (Kikuyu), which currently has one of the highest populations, will experience a slower population growth, with tribes such as Luhya and Luo expected to have higher growths. The Mt. Kenya region, which in this chart consists of Nakuru, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia, and Embu, will see an almost similar population increase as the five Central Kenya counties of Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Kiambu, Murang’a, and Nyandarua. Ukambani will probably see a lower population increase as people migrate out of counties such as Machakos, as the KPHC suggested.
The Ukambani projection seems counterintuitive, especially when you consider Machakos to be closer to Nairobi. We expect more people to move into Machakos rather than leave. Since that won’t be the case, I believe it answers a long-standing question about the loss of agricultural land in Kiambu as people build apartments. Ideally, most of these people should move into less arable areas such as Machakos, but that’s not what we see. As the data shows, the population of Kiambu will increase by more than a million people as that of Machakos declines. We should expect more apartments in Kiambu than in Machakos as the former morphs into a metropolis that potentially merges with Nairobi to form a megacity.
Kisiis will have the lowest population increase compared to all other regions and tribes featured in the chart. Somalis, who currently have some of the highest fertility rates, will see a larger increase in their population compared to most regions. However, by 2045, their numbers still won’t be larger than that of Kenya’s major tribes.
Politics
Kenya’s politics is mostly tribal, and while a lot will change in the next 25 years, we cannot say with certainty what our politics will look like. However, assuming current voting patterns continue, we can project and see how Kenya’s political scene will look like. First, Luhyas, Luos, and Maasais will gain more political capital based on sheer numbers alone. Currently, there seems to be an equal number of Kikuyus in Central as there are Luhyas and Luos in Western and Nyanza, respectively. However, despite the slower increase in the Kikuyu population, Central will still have a significantly larger population than the Luhya, Luo, and Kalenjin regions. Therefore, the tyranny of numbers is expected to remain despite the other tribes becoming more competitive. The picture becomes starker when considering the larger Mt. Kenya region (and doing sums rather than means, as shown below).
Mt. Kenya region, including Central Kenya, will have a total of 15.2 million people against the current population of 11 million people (These are not voters. Just the total number of people in these regions). We expect the total voters to be a fraction of these figures and to trend in the same direction as the total population figures.
The Luo, Luhya, and Kalenjin will trail the Kikuyu and the larger Mt. Kenya region in 2045, just as is the case today. The Luo counties of Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, and Migori will have a total population of 6.7 million in 2045. The Luhya counties of Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, and Busia will total 6.9 million people. Similarly, the Kalenjin counties of Kericho, Bomet, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo, and Uasin Gishu will total 6.9 million people. The Somalis (Wajir, Mandera, Garissa), whom many have argued will be a formidable force in future due to their high TFRs, will reach a high of 4.3 million people in 2045 compared to the current 2.5 million people. Even without adding Mt. Kenya, most counties will have fewer people than Central in 2045, with 7.7 million people. Based on these data, it can be argued that the current Kikuyu hegemony will remain in place for at least the next 25 years.
Worth noting is that the data does not tell us who will win the next four elections and from what tribe they’ll come from. Kenyan elections are contested through coalitions, and while Kikuyus, Luos, Luhyas, and the Kalenjin will continue to have strong bargaining power, only a coalition of any of these tribes can guarantee anyone the presidency. Furthermore, this analysis underestimates the total number of people from each of the counties that live and will live in other counties in 2045. Many immigrants will move to Nairobi, Kiambu, or Nakuru. However, this analysis does not accurately capture the tribal compositions of any of these regions. Therefore, what has been stated here can only be accurate within a certain threshold of error.
